Last week in this space, I took the time to celebrate my fantasy team ascending to the top of my league for the first time in three years. This week, my team lost to a squad that featured Buffalo practice-squad call-up Thad Lewis as its quarterback.
It’s been more than 24 hours and I’m still trying to figure out how this happened. The only explanation I can come up with is that I jinxed myself by telling you all about my success last week. That was some fast-acting karma.
Anyway, the lesson to be learned here is that fantasy football can be a crazy game sometimes. It’s my job to help you make sense of that craziness, my defeat at the hands of a quarterback with exactly one prior career start notwithstanding. With that in mind, think of these trends as a way to daaaa-ble check your team before Week 7 begins.
Week 7 Who's Up Down
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Chris Johnson RB – Tennessee
Johnson has rushed for over 1000 yards each season in his five-year career, but that streak is in serious jeopardy in 2013. CJ2K has run for only 327 yards through six games and is averaging a paltry 3.1 yards per rush. In the last three weeks, he’s failed to rush for over 35 yards in any game. Even worse, the former East Carolina star has not found the end zone once this season.
Johnson’s fantasy owners need to give serious thought to finding a replacement for him soon because he hasn’t been able to produce at anything close to his customary level this year. In fairness to Johnson, it’s probably difficult to run when your team’s quarterback only completes 52.6 percent of his passes, as Ryan Fitzpatrick has this season. Johnson and the Titans won’t find a reprieve in Week 7 as they face the always-tough 49ers defense. It’s probably time to bench Chris Johnson; no matter how many cheetahs he’s raced.
Arrow Pointing: DOWN
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Justin Blackmon WR – Jacksonville
After missing the first four games of 2013 due to a drug-related suspension, the 23-year old Blackmon has put up eye-popping numbers in the first two games he’s played in. After catching five passes for 136 yards in Week 5, Blackmon exploded against Denver on Sunday, hauling in 14 of Chad Henne’s throws for 190 yards. Henne targeted him a whopping 20 times in the Jaguars’ loss.
This is the type of production that Jacksonville was expecting when they used the fifth overall pick on Blackmon in 2012. It’s tough to advocate picking up a skill position player in Jacksonville because of the team’s fluid quarterback situation, but Blackmon is so talented that he might be valuable even with Blaine Gabbert throwing passes his way (emphasis on “might”).
That’s a moot point in Week 7, though, because Henne has already been announced as the starter against the Chargers’ 27th-ranked pass defense. Blackmon is only owned in 53 percent of ESPN leagues right now, so pick him and expect him to torch the struggling San Diego secondary.
Arrow Pointing: UP
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Keenan Allen WR – San Diego
Allen has quietly been a beast over the last three weeks for the Chargers, racking up two touchdowns, two 100-yard games and a total of 20 catches during that span. He has seen a steady increase in his targets as Philip Rivers gains confidence in him, from just one in Week 2, to a team-high 12 in a Week 6 victory against the Colts.
The Chargers’ 2013 third-round pick is only six games into his NFL career, but he is quickly becoming one of Rivers’ favorite targets. The North Carolina native is currently owned in just six percent of ESPN leagues, so you may be able to pick up a valuable WR from the waiver wire if you hurry. Allen is especially valuable for Week 7 thanks to a matchup with everyone’s favorite punching bag, the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Arrow Pointing: UP
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Nick Foles QB – Philadelphia
It’s still unclear whether Foles is simply filling in while Michael Vick is hurt or if Chip Kelly is considering him for the long-term starter’s role. What is clear is that Foles is quite capable of running Kelly’s up-tempo offense effectively. In the last two weeks, the Arizona product has thrown for 493 yards and five touchdowns without an interception. He even boasts a rushing touchdown on a designed quarterback draw.
The Texas native has certainly been more accurate than Vick this season; he has completed 67.2 percent of his passes, while the injured starter has only connected on 53.8 percent of his throws. At the very least, you should keep an eye on Foles and pick him off the waiver wire if Kelly announces that Vick will miss a second straight game. The Eagles face the porous Dallas pass defense in Week 7, so Foles will be a viable fantasy starter this week if Vick is still hurt.
Arrow Pointing: UP
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Vernon Davis TE – San Francisco
Davis had been battling a hamstring injury for the last several weeks, but he appeared to be fully healed on Sunday against the Cardinals. The former Maryland star caught eight passes for a career-high 180 yards and two TDs against Arizona and accounted for over 70 percent of the Niners’ passing offense.
Davis now ranks third in the NFL with six touchdown catches on the season, including four in the last three games alone and is averaging a whopping 18.4 yards per reception, easily the highest among TEs (Jimmy Graham is second at 16.0). With Mario Manningham and Michael Crabtree both sidelined, he will likely be Colin Kaepernick’s favorite target in the coming weeks, both in the vertical passing game and in the red zone.
Arrow Pointing: UP
