Australia’s stay in Brazil is destined to be a short one according to statistical genius Nate Silver. The face behind ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight has returned with his Soccer Power Index (SPI) to rate each nation’s chances in Brazil, predicting the prestigious tournament is all but the host nation’s to lose.
The outlook for the struggling Socceroos isn’t so favourable with Silver projecting Ange Postecoglou’s side has a 0.0% chance of winning the World Cup, equal lowest with Iran, Honduras and Algeria.
And if you’re hoping for some sort of consolidation win, don’t get your hopes up. According to Silver, Australia’s best chance will come in their second Group B hit out against the Netherlands on June 24, but with just 15% chance of an upset and an overbearing 61% chance of a clean loss.
In addition to calculating a 92.2% chance of a group stage exit for the Socceroos, Silver predicts just a 7% and 9% chance of victory against Spain and Chile respectively.
“This group — not the one the United States is in — is the “Group of Death”, with three teams ranked in the SPI top 10,” Silver writes on FiveThirtyEight.
“That’s unfortunate for Australia, which is the odd team out and has less chance than any other squad of advancing to the knockout stage.
The US may not have a storied history with the sport or the World Cup, however questioning the validity of the former economic consultant and baseball analyst’s skills won’t bring you much solace. Silver has made a career out of delivering shockingly accurate predictions, most notably the 2012 US presidential election where he amazingly nailed the winner of all 50 states and 31 of 33 Senate placements.
SPI, an algorithm based on 10,000 simulations, has Brazil at a 45.2% chance of the winning the World Cup, followed by Argentina (12.8%), Germany (10.9%) and Spain (7.6%).
Photo: Matt King/Getty Images
