In the Boom Or Bust? series, I’ll be taking a look at the big-name offseason transactions and evaluating their fantasy impact in no particular order.
First we’ll take a look at the Atlanta Falcons’ Steven Jackson.
Jackson comes to the Falcons and fills a very important need. A year ago, Atlanta finished 29th in the NFL in rushing yards (1,397) and 26th in rushing attempts (23.6 rushes per game).
While the Oregon State product fills a need for the Flacons on the field, his fantasy value isn’t as clear. Some have labeled him a bust and it isn’t a stretch to see why.
In 2012, Julio Jones and Roddy White were the No. 9 and 10 fantasy WRs with 182 and 177 points, respectively. Tony Gonzalez was the No. 3 fantasy TE, scoring 141 points. Where is there room for a running back in such a loaded aerial assault?
The elephant in the room, aside from the team around Jackson, is his age. 30 years old is considered ancient by RB standards and Jackson is – you guessed it – 30. Can he still get it done at his age?
The Verdict: Boom
The questions raised about Jackson are valid but shouldn’t hold him back and he should have a solid year.
Despite their air-it-out mentality, Jackson should still have at least close to a 1,000-yard season. In the last eight seasons, Atlanta has had a 1,000-yard rusher six times and Jackson had totaled 1,000 yards each of the aforementioned eight seasons.
Helping Jackson get to the 1,000-yard mark a ninth time will be the Falcons favorable schedule against the run.
Writes NFL.com’s Michael Fabiano
“Jackson (16th), who has rushed for 1,000-plus yards in eight straight seasons, will be in a nice position to succeed as a member of the Falcons. He’ll have a prominent backfield role and a favorable schedule, as the Falcons have 11 contests against teams that surrendered 17-plus fantasy points to running backs last season. That includes seven games against teams that allowed 20 or more points to the position, so Jackson will be in a great spot to succeed.”
WRs Jones, White and TE Gonzalez should spread teams out and give Jackson more open running lanes. And don’t forget, Jackson can catch the ball too.
Jackson has recorded more than 300 yards receiving each of the last five years and peaked in 2006 with 806 receiving yards.
All in all, Jackson has a lot more pieces around him than he did in St. Louis and it should pay off this year for fantasy owners.
Expect him to score around 175 points this year, making him a lower-to-middle end RB1 to a great RB2 with upside.
Eric Smith is an MMA and fantasy football contributor with Craveonline.com. Follow him on twitter or @EricSmith_SP or email him at ejmith7@asu.edu.
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