Week 4 in the NFL is about the time that trends begin emerging and can be measured without being shot down due to small sample size.
For example, we now know with some certainty that the Giants and Steelers — both 0-4 — are bad football teams this season, as surprising as that may be for most fans to realize. On the other hand, we’re pretty sure that the Saints and Chiefs — both of whom missed the playoffs a season ago — are very good football teams, as both sit at 4-0.
These are trends that concern teams, but which players are trending in which directions? This is the question that concerns fantasy football owners and the one we’ll answer here, as we do every week. Let’s go on Week 5 predictions.
Dylan Sinn is a freelance contributor for CraveOnline Sports. You can follow him on Twitter @DylanSinn or “like” CraveOnline Sports on Facebook.
Photo Credit: Getty
Who's Up Who's Down Week 5
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Alshon Jeffery WR – Chicago
The second-year receiver has emerged as the Robin to Brandon Marshall’s Batman in recent weeks. After having just one catch in Week 2, Jeffery caught seven passes in Week 3 and had five catches for 107 yards and a touchdown in the Bears’ loss to the Lions on Sunday.
As the season has progressed, and quarterback Jay Cutler has gained confidence in him, the former South Carolina star’s targets have risen as well. On Sunday, Cutler threw his way 11 times, up from five in Week 2. Jeffery’s size-he’s 6’3’’, 216 lbs-means he will catch a lot of jump balls, making him a valuable asset for Cutler. His workload and production should continue to increase as the season wears on.
Arrow Pointing: UP
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Brian Hoyer QB – Cleveland
I wrote during the lead-up to the Browns’ Week 4 game against the Bengals that I was uncomfortable anointing Hoyer as a savior after only one game. After all, his first impressive performance came against the porous Minnesota defense, which is ranked dead last in the league in passing yards allowed. Well, after a second consecutive stellar game, this time against a Bengals defense that had previously picked off Aaron Rodgers twice, the Michigan State product has earned his way on to this list. Hoyer threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns without a pick in the Browns 17-6 win in Week 4.
He posted a passer rating of 103.9 in the game and the Cleveland coaching staff rewarded him with another start. The Browns take on Buffalo’s 23rd ranked pass defense on Thursday, so look for another solid game from Hoyer. He’s not elite, but he can be a valuable QB2 or a QB1 in a deep league.
Arrow Pointing: UP
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Danny Woodhead RB – San Diego
Woodhead has had over 30 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards in each of the last two weeks and has done far more with his touches than fellow tailback Ryan Mathews. The pride of Chadron State University has averaged over six yards per carry in Weeks 3 and 4, compared to under four for Mathews.
If Mathews’ production continues to lag, it is likely Woodhead will get more touches out of the backfield in coming weeks. He’s already a major threat as a receiver and he proved that in the Chargers’ win over Dallas on Sunday. The 28-year old caught two touchdowns from Philip Rivers, from 26 and 13 yards out. San Diego faces the Raiders’ 22nd ranked run defense next, so Woodhead should again be a solid option. He’s quickly becoming a valuable flex player.
Arrow Pointing: UP
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Jared Cook TE – St. Louis
Cook has been decidedly mediocre in his fantasy production since his 147-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 1. That one game sent his value soaring, but in the last three games he’s caught a total of 10 passes for 99 yards. Even worse, he hasn’t found the end zone in those three games, despite facing the struggling pass defenses of the Cowboys and Falcons.
The bottom line here is that Rams pass-catchers aren’t reliable as consistent fantasy options because Sam Bradford is not a reliably good quarterback. He seems middle of the pack in every way, including in his 58.8 completion percentage (23rd in the league) and his 82.1 passer rating (also 23rd). The Rams face the hapless Jaguars next, so it might be a good idea to hold off on trading Cook until after that game; his value might never be higher again.
Arrow Pointing: DOWN
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Tom Brady QB – New England
Two weeks ago, I told you all to drop Brady from your fantasy teams. He was washed up, I believed. He had no weapons to throw to. It turns out I broke one of the cardinal rules of the present-day NFL -- never bet against Tom Brady. Brady made my advice look foolish the last two weeks with two stellar games, so consider this an official retraction. Brady is an elite fantasy quarterback again.
Over the last two weeks, the three-time Super Bowl champion has completed over 65 percent of his passes for 541 yards and four touchdowns. Against Atlanta in Week 4, he posted a passer rating of 119.8 and helped both Kenbrell Thompkins and Julian Edelman go over 115 yards receiving.
He seems to be gaining chemistry weekly with his pass-catchers, especially with the rookie Thompkins. With tight end Rob Gronkowski’s return appearing imminent, this Patriots offense could look downright scary again in a hurry. I’m sorry for doubting you Mr. Brady.
Arrow Pointing: UP
