But a few years back I figured out how I could do it myself thanks to Excel, some thermonuclear economic theories and some duct tape.
I started to make my own projection models based on a consensus of other projection models. It was incredibly more reliable than trying to juggle a dozen different sites each with wildly different numbers or throwing a dart and hoping I picked the right one.
The table below is a consensus for all of the projections for second base with each player’s rank against other players at that position. Then each ranking is averaged out for a score. Read the nerdy fine print at the very bottom to learn how to use. These do not have “weights” added.
For example, Ben Zobrist has position flexibility and consistency, so he’ll be ranked much higher than Jedd Gyorko (who is young enough to have a bit of a bust probability) in the official rankings.
Here are the projections and rankings (remember this doesn’t include weights):
Pay attention to the drop-offs between one player at the position and the next guy. The color coding will help you see the drop from one tier to the next.
Boom:
Those 20 homers Brian Dozier is projected to hit are quite a nice treat. Gives him a boost to tenth overall. A-A-Ron Hill done messed up last year when he broke his wrist. The projections say he’ll be fine. Start paying attention to him for being a real steal on draft day depending how low experts rank him based on injury history. There is a lot of love for Jason Kipnis. He is projected to be a top ten guy in each of the five categories. Jose Altuve’s 31 stolen bases makes him a prime target despite his rotten egg smelling RBI’s and runs.
Bust:
When I started this project, I mentioned to sports channel editor Josh Helmuth how low the projection models had Matt Carpenter. Considering Josh was swaddled in an Ozzie Smith jersey as an infant, he laughed and laughed. Then, he told me to check my numbers while he happily took Carpenter much higher than I would. I’m not budging from the science. The BARISP for Carpenter and the rest of the redbirds will come back down to Earth. For the rest of the field, don’t bother grabbing a backup to your cornerstone guy earlier because the drop-off after Howie Kendrick is brutal. Actually, for real purposes, the cliff after Dustin Pedroria is Wil E. Coyote bad.
Here are the basics and ‘need to knows’ to understand how to use the chart:
· Projections for the basic five fantasy baseball categories: SB, HR, RBI, R, and AVG. Projections are based on several trusted projections datasets. A consensus removes the need to put all of your trust in a single source.
· Each player is ranked about the other players in that position. Their overall ranking is displayed in the “RANK SCORE”. That is the average in each of the rankings.
· You’ll notice that several players are higher/lower than you expect to see on a normal “rankings” list. That is because the “Rank Score” is not weighted for such things as position flexibility, stat importance, boom and bust probability, injury history, at-bat projections or year over year consistency.
· Over the next couple weeks, the CraveOnline fantasy team will be releasing their rankings for each position. I recommend using their rankings to give you the best recommendations around.
· I personally take these projections and add weights to determine my own rankings. From there, I’ll build a ‘draft map’ to help me strategize which targeted player to take in the draft. It helps to grab my “undervalued” guys at the right time. Last year, it was Matt Harvey and Starling Marte.
Now go forth and “win baseball” as my non-understanding girlfriend likes to say.
Brian Reddoch is a CraveOnline reporter and rabid fan of all teams Seattle. You can follow him on Twitter @ReddReddoch or “like” CraveOnline Sports on Facebook.
